I think you could legitimately take either approach to be honest. There isn't a perfect solution that avoids all possible problems so I guess it's a combination of picking which risk you are more worried about (pages getting indexed when you don't want them to, or crawl budget -- probably depends on the size of your site) and possibly considering difficulty of implementation etc.
In light of the fact that we heard about noindex,follow becoming equivalent to noindex,nofollow eventually, that does dampen the benefits of that approach, but doesn't entirely negate it.
I'm not totally sold on the phrasing in the yoast article - I wouldn't call it google "ignoring" robots.txt - it just serves a different purpose. Google is respecting the "do not crawl" directive, but that has never guaranteed that they wouldn't index a page if it got external links.
I personally might lean towards the robots.txt solution on larger sites if crawl budget were the primary concern - just because it wouldn't be the end of the world if (some of) these pages got indexed if they had external links. The only reason we were trying to keep them out was for google's benefit, so if they want to index despite the robots block, it wouldn't keep me awake at night.
Whatever route you go down, good luck!