I do this a lot (on a daily bases), so first off your not alone.
And your right in the fact it does need to be weighed up.
It's very hard to give an actual answer but in general if I see PA/DA 40+ a lot of work could be involved, if I see PA/DA 20- should be easy, id expect first page rankings in a few weeks to a month if that.
I don't just go off this alone but it's my starting point, I will check out all of page 1 and page 2 and some times page 3. You might find page 1 is 40+ then page 2 is 25+.
But I do look at lots of elements for example how much there content is shared socially, this gives me an idea if I produced the same sort of content and pushed PPC to it what kind of sharing potential is available from this audience (but this is just a method I do, haven't seen anyone else doing it).