@darrenspeed, when you listed the factors where #2 dominates #1, you didn't mention anything about on-page content. Consider this scenario:
Google actually jumps the current #2 to the #1 spot, but Google also notices that well over half the people that visit the site go back to Google within 20 seconds and perform the exact same search. This would signal to Google that the page's content doesn't fully satisfy its users. So it goes back to putting the other page on top, and notices that only 25% of the visitors go back and perform another search for the same keyword. Therefore Google waves it's magic wand and says, "yea, verily I declare #1 to be better than #2."
Other than the domain age, it is the only other plausible explanation I can come up with. Compare the content of both pages and get back to us. I'll be interested to see if it is a domain age issue, content issue, or possibly something else.